近日，中国科学院大气物理研究所杨东旭团队报道了变暖引发的火灾与产甲烷作用导致西伯利亚甲烷排放十年翻倍。这一研究成果于2026年8月6日发表在《科学》杂志上。
北方永久冻土区储存的碳量约为大气中的两倍，且易受加速变暖的影响。永久冻土融化产生的甲烷排放最终可能导致气候-碳反馈。
研究组对大气甲烷数据的分析显示，2010—2023年间，西伯利亚生长季甲烷排放增加了12.0±1.9太克甲烷（TgCH4），即每年增加5%。研究组揭示了与高压系统及不同的海-气-陆相互作用相关的西伯利亚水文趋势对比，发现东西伯利亚更温暖、更干燥的条件加剧了与火灾相关的排放（0.7±0.1 TgCH4·年-2），而西西伯利亚更湿润的条件促进了与湿地相关的排放（0.4±0.1 TgCH4·年-2）。
温度最大值与甲烷排放之间的弱非线性关系表明，到2050年，西伯利亚更高的排放量可能抵消全球为实现气候目标所需甲烷减排量的20%，其中东西伯利亚在预计增加中占主导地位。
附：英文原文
Title: Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis
Author: Sihong Zhu, Yi Liu, Paul I. Palmer, Liang Feng, Dongxu Yang, Shangfeng Chen, Motoki Sasakawa, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Junji Cao, Ove Hermansen, Stephen M. Platt
Issue&Volume: 2026-08-06
Abstract: The northern permafrost region, which stores double the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, is vulnerable to accelerated warming. Methane emissions from thawing permafrost may eventually result in a climate-carbon feedback. Our analysis of atmospheric methane data shows that Siberian growing-season methane emissions have increased by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams of methane (TgCH4) (5% per year) over the period 2010–2023. We reveal contrasting Siberian hydrological trends linked to high-pressure systems and distinct air-sea-land interactions. Warmer, drier conditions over eastern Siberia enhance fire-related emissions (0.7 ± 0.1 TgCH4 year2), and wetter conditions over western Siberia promote wetland-related emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 TgCH4 year2). Weakly nonlinear relationships between temperature maxima and emissions suggest that by 2050, higher Siberian emissions could offset about 20% of the global methane reduction required for climate targets, with eastern Siberia dominating the projected increase.
DOI: aea5828
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea5828